TNET Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNET - TRINET GROUP, INC.
$38.01
0.30 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
+0.8%
90d:
-34.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TNET trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TNET trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.50
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.53
10.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNET is currently trading at $38.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.80 to $38.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNET is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.21, while resistance sits at $39.33.
Market Sentiment: TNET has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.80 (+44.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNET is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.21, while resistance sits at $39.33.
Market Sentiment: TNET has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.80 (+44.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$35.80 -
$38.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.2% below Wall St target ($54.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.80 -
$38.93
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.95
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.21
Resistance Level
$39.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.17
Wall Street Target
$54.80
(+44.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.3%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.89
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$32.03
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$29.41
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$38.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$137.42
(+262%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 9.6%)
$50.10
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 9.6%)
$42.58
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.20
Bull Case
$60.53
(+56%)
Analyst growth 45.5%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$55.03
(+42%)
Market implied 45.5%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$25.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$49.34
(+29.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNET showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony Shea Treadway
SELL
487 shares
2026-02-18
Sidney A Majalya
SELL
775 shares
2026-01-09
Jeffery Jon Hayward
SELL
1437 shares
2025-11-25
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