TPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$348.36
-4.85 (-1.37%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$959.31
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$595.65
41.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPL is currently trading at $348.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $295.09 to $343.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (21.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $325.56, while resistance sits at $372.81.
Market Sentiment: TPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $635.00 (+82.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $325.56, while resistance sits at $372.81.
Market Sentiment: TPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $635.00 (+82.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$295.09 -
$343.36
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 82.3% below Wall St target ($635.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$295.09 -
$343.36
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$325.56
Resistance Level
$372.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.77
Wall Street Target
$635.00
(+82.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Profit Margin
61.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 21.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$313.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$282.17
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$253.95
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→22)
$401.96
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.7%)
$968.30
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 19.7%)
$598.04
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 19.7%)
$508.34
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.73
Bull Case
$1327.32
(+281%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 52.5
Base Case
$1206.66
(+246%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 47.7
Bear Case
$672.50
(93%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 21.8
Stabilization Target:
$551.39
(+58.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+58.3%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Eric L Oliver
BUY
100 shares
2025-08-21
Eric L Oliver
BUY
100 shares
2025-08-14
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-08-13
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