TXNM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXNM - TXNM Energy, Inc.
$58.63
0.29 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
+0.36%
30d:
-0.66%
90d:
-0.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXNM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXNM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.03
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.39
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXNM is currently trading at $58.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.38 to $59.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$58.38 -
$59.06
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.79)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.38 -
$59.06
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.01
Resistance Level
$58.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.59
Wall Street Target
$60.79
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.0%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.36
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$54.44
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$52.59
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$58.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.6%)
$103.19
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 11.6%)
$81.01
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 11.6%)
$68.86
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$127.75
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.2
Base Case
$116.14
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.2
Bear Case
$39.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$64.69
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXNM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Vicky A Bailey
SELL
1800 shares
2025-11-14
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