UBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$15.21
-1.36 (-8.21%)
▼
5d:
-10.58%
30d:
+1.13%
90d:
+2.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UBCP is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UBCP is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.68
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.32
0.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $15.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.73 to $16.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.65, while resistance sits at $17.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.65, while resistance sits at $17.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$14.73 -
$16.09
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.73 -
$16.09
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.65
Resistance Level
$17.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.36
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.27
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$17.99
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$18.75
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.47
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.5%)
$59.53
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 18.5%)
$27.59
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 18.5%)
$23.45
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$21.51
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.4%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$19.56
(+18%)
Market implied 19.4%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$11.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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