UBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$13.90
-0.24 (-1.70%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 06, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.08
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.33
3.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $13.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.76 to $14.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $14.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+41.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $14.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+41.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$13.76 -
$14.57
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.76 -
$14.57
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.43
Resistance Level
$14.15
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.12
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Profit Margin
24.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.22
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$14.31
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$14.40
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.20
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$55.96
(+296%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 17.4%)
$22.89
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 17.4%)
$19.46
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$18.22
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$16.56
(+19%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$9.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UBCP price and gamma walls.