UFPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFPT - UFP Technologies Inc
$193.99
0.39 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
+2.06%
30d:
-4.4%
90d:
-17.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UFPT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UFPT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$357.86
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$222.20
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFPT is currently trading at $193.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.68 to $219.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $199.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.50 (+67.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $199.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.50 (+67.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$189.68 -
$219.90
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.3% below Wall St target ($324.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$189.68 -
$219.90
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.40
Resistance Level
$199.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.94
Wall Street Target
$324.50
(+67.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 21.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$179.44
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$165.98
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$153.53
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$193.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$357.82
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 11.8%)
$271.18
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$230.51
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.75
Bull Case
$275.06
(+46%)
Analyst growth 30.9%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$250.06
(+33%)
Market implied 30.9%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$129.91
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$245.08
(+26.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jason Holt
SELL
100 shares
2025-12-10
Christopher P Litterio
SELL
1829 shares
2025-11-06
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