UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$40.16
0.05 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
+0.93%
30d:
+7.29%
90d:
+20.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.63
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $40.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.00 to $39.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$37.00 -
$39.43
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -3.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.00 -
$39.43
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.87
Resistance Level
$41.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.81
Wall Street Target
$44.50
(+10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.36
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.56
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$40.77
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.9%)
$95.34
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$50.50
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 7.9%)
$42.93
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.05
Bull Case
$49.18
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$44.71
(+11%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$27.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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