UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$127.14
-0.13 (-0.10%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UMBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$166.84
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $127.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.89 to $123.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$117.89 -
$123.64
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UMBF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($138.85)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$117.89 -
$123.64
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.01
Resistance Level
$129.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$138.85
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
67.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.38
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$125.49
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$124.62
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$127.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$341.11
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$152.97
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$130.02
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.29
Bull Case
$187.85
(+48%)
Analyst growth 37.0%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$170.78
(+34%)
Market implied 37.0%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$84.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$129.81
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shannon Andresen Johnson
SELL
1367 shares
2025-09-03
Greg M Graves
BUY
234 shares
2025-09-02
Amy Harris
SELL
500 shares
2025-08-27
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Advanced UMBF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UMBF price and gamma walls.
