UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$112.79
2.81 (2.56%)
▲
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
-4.13%
90d:
-3.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UMBF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UMBF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.44
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.94
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $112.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.59 to $119.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $114.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.23 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $114.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.23 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$109.59 -
$119.13
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($144.23)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$109.59 -
$119.13
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.37
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.12
Resistance Level
$114.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.60
Wall Street Target
$144.23
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
67.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.50
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$104.38
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$100.41
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$113.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$383.24
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 9.3%)
$147.43
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$125.31
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.29
Bull Case
$169.42
(+53%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$154.02
(+39%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$74.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$127.25
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Charles Gallagher
SELL
388 shares
2026-02-03
Greg M Graves
BUY
220 shares
2026-02-02
J Mariner Kemper
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-02
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