UVSP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
$35.30
0.92 (2.69%)
▲
5d:
+5.4%
30d:
+9.36%
90d:
+20.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVSP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UVSP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.46
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVSP is currently trading at $35.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.57 to $34.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.57 -
$34.04
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($33.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.57 -
$34.04
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.74
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.46
Resistance Level
$35.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.08
Wall Street Target
$33.33
(-5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.88
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$34.46
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$34.04
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$35.14
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.5%)
$102.51
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$46.32
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 9.5%)
$39.37
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.13
Bull Case
$42.32
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$38.47
(+9%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$23.37
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$36.43
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Last updated: February 04, 2026 3:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas M Petro
SELL
9000 shares
2025-08-27
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