UVSP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
$34.26
0.44 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
+1.36%
30d:
+0.53%
90d:
+2.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVSP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVSP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.51
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVSP is currently trading at $34.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.93 to $34.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$32.93 -
$34.36
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.93 -
$34.36
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.41
Resistance Level
$34.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$36.00
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Profit Margin
28.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.57
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$32.90
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$32.25
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$34.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$103.02
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$43.11
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$36.64
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.13
Bull Case
$42.42
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$38.56
(+14%)
Market implied 17.0%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$22.41
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$36.27
(+5.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Natalye Paquin
BUY
580 shares
2026-02-02
Natalye Paquin
BUY
655 shares
2025-11-10
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