VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$69.12
-6.35 (-8.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.1%
30d:
+16.03%
90d:
+42.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VIST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VIST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.10
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $69.12, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.54 to $71.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.6) is in line with its historical norms (0.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $67.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.85 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $67.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.85 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$58.54 -
$71.50
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.85)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 52.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.54 -
$71.50
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.76
Resistance Level
$79.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.63
Wall Street Target
$81.85
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
0.6 vs 0.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.30
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$71.49
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$72.71
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$69.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$3934.23
(+5592%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.6, Growth: 17.1%)
$111.02
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.5, Growth: 17.1%)
$94.37
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.71
Bull Case
$158.53
(+134%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$144.12
(+112%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$49.00
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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