VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$60.49
-0.10 (-0.17%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: VIST is 10.5% above fair value ($54.74). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: VIST is 10.5% above fair value ($54.74). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.81
Based on -10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.13
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $60.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.63 to $54.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 0.7) compared to its historical average (0.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $61.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.02 (+33.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $61.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.02 (+33.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$45.63 -
$54.74
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
VIST is technically overbought (RSI 79). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.5% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.9% below Wall St target ($81.02)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$45.63 -
$54.74
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.34
Resistance Level
$61.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.67
Wall Street Target
$81.02
(+33.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
32.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.4% premium
PE vs Historical
0.7 vs 0.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.36
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$68.48
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$72.86
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.99
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -24.1%)
$1461.86
(+2317%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.7, Growth: -24.1%)
$44.10
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.6, Growth: -24.1%)
$37.48
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.76
Bull Case
$130.77
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$118.88
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$40.42
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 9:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced VIST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VIST price and gamma walls.
