VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$12.18
0.28 (2.31%)
▲
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
-4.96%
90d:
+2.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.66
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.07
13.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $12.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.81 to $12.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 66.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.89 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.89 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$11.81 -
$12.78
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($14.89)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.81 -
$12.78
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.45
Resistance Level
$12.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.96
Wall Street Target
$14.89
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.7%
Profit Margin
32.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.45
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$11.01
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.59
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$11.98
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.2%)
$55.16
(+364%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 18.2%)
$19.65
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 18.2%)
$16.70
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.01
Bull Case
$19.10
(+59%)
Analyst growth 48.0%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$17.36
(+45%)
Market implied 48.0%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$7.98
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$13.45
(+13.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 2:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carlos J Vazquez
BUY
2500 shares
2026-02-17
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