VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$12.46
-0.21 (-1.66%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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1 traders called VLY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.20
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $12.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.76 to $12.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.63, while resistance sits at $12.87.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.04 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.63, while resistance sits at $12.87.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.04 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$11.76 -
$12.28
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.04)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.76 -
$12.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.64
Resistance Level
$12.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.14
Wall Street Target
$14.04
(+10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.00
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$13.34
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$13.68
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 28.6%)
$59.30
(+368%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 28.6%)
$26.98
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 28.6%)
$22.93
(+81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$19.16
(+54%)
Analyst growth 41.9%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$17.41
(+40%)
Market implied 41.9%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$8.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced VLY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLY price and gamma walls.
