VRRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock
$14.08
0.20 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
-3.83%
30d:
-15.74%
90d:
-37.42%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VRRM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.9% annual earnings decline despite 38% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VRRM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.9% annual earnings decline despite 38% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.06
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.15
33.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRRM is currently trading at $14.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.56 to $17.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VRRM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.86 (+79.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VRRM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.86 (+79.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.56 -
$17.65
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 79.1% below Wall St target ($24.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.56 -
$17.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.94
Resistance Level
$15.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.93
Wall Street Target
$24.86
(+79.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.1%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.49
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.24
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.12
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→14)
$15.86
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.9%)
$52.83
(+281%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 14.9%)
$21.07
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 14.9%)
$17.91
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85
Bull Case
$28.83
(+97%)
Analyst growth 82.8%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$26.21
(+79%)
Market implied 82.8%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$9.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$21.75
(+56.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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