VTLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTLE - Vital Energy, Inc.
$17.95
-0.15 (-0.83%)
▼
5d:
-6.27%
30d:
+4.97%
90d:
+12.54%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Dec 12, 2025 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VTLE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VTLE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.27
Based on -19.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.27
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTLE is currently trading at $17.95, which is considered fair based on recent price action. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.8) is in line with its historical norms (3.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTLE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.41, while resistance sits at $19.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.82 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTLE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.41, while resistance sits at $19.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.82 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($20.82)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.41
Resistance Level
$19.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Dec 12, 2025
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.84
Wall Street Target
$20.82
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2103.8%
Profit Margin
-69.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 3.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.24
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$18.53
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$18.83
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.13
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: -42.8%)
$13.09
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.6, Growth: -42.8%)
$76.94
(+329%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: -42.8%)
$12.60
(-30%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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