What is the fair value of XPEV stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for XPEV to be between $16.97 and $19.25. The current price is $16.79.

What is the analyst price target for XPEV?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for XPEV is $24.96. This implies a potential upside of 47.4% from current levels.

XPEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

XPEV - XPeng Inc. American depositary shares, each representing two Class A ordinary shares

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

$16.79

-0.14 (-0.86%) ▼

5d: -11.05%

30d: -4.41%

90d: -19.23%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 20, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

XPEV is down 11.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $23 2026-06-18 with 5,539 OI. Call ratio: 72% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: XPEV is down 11.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$72.80

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$45.20

62.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: XPEV is currently trading at $16.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.97 to $19.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.6) compared to its historical average (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, XPEV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.96 (+47.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $16.97 - $19.25

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 47.4% below Wall St target ($24.96)
WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $16.97 - $19.25

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $16.73

Resistance Level $20.01

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 3.58

Wall Street Target $24.96 (+47.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 38.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -10.2%

Profit Margin -1.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -23.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 3.6 vs 7.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -23.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $15.24 (-10%)

2-Year Target $13.71 (-19%)

3-Year Target $12.34 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 4→8) $27.25 (+61%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 1448.0%) $357.75 (+2013%)

Base: (SPY PE: 3.6, Growth: 1448.0%) $57.14 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 3.0, Growth: 1448.0%) $48.57 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.6 to 7.9

Stabilization Target: $37.38 (+120.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +120.8%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 PM

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Advanced XPEV Option Strategies

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