ACAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACAD - Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$22.09
-0.09 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-2.08%
30d:
+1.52%
90d:
+2.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ACAD is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $26 2026-06-18 with 2,537 OI. Call ratio: 98% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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1 traders called ACAD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACAD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACAD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.99
18.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $22.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.74 to $22.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.7) compared to its historical average (27.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.36, while resistance sits at $23.07.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.65 (+43.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.36, while resistance sits at $23.07.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.65 (+43.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.74 -
$22.43
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.3% below Wall St target ($31.65)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.74 -
$22.43
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.36
Resistance Level
$23.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.74
Wall Street Target
$31.65
(+43.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.8%
Profit Margin
34.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 27.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.21
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$20.36
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$19.54
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$22.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 124.8%)
$74.55
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 124.8%)
$66.43
(+201%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 124.8%)
$56.46
(+156%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.21
Bull Case
$12.20
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$11.09
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$15.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.7 to 27.9
Stabilization Target:
$24.91
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James Kihara
SELL
1030 shares
2026-04-07
Mark C Schneyer
SELL
2709 shares
2026-04-07
Jennifer J Rhodes
SELL
6950 shares
2026-02-09
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Advanced ACAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACAD price and gamma walls.
