ACHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$23.56
-0.11 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-1.22%
30d:
-2.12%
90d:
+66.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ACHC is down 3.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-06-18 with 239 OI. Call ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.58
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.26
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $23.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.26 to $24.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.61, while resistance sits at $24.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.61, while resistance sits at $24.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$21.26 -
$24.89
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.71)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 13.8% growth with 6.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.26 -
$24.89
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.61
Resistance Level
$24.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.12
Wall Street Target
$22.71
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.9%
Profit Margin
-33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.8% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.94
(+14%)
2-Year Target
$30.65
(+30%)
3-Year Target
$34.88
(+47%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$55.13
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$34.84
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$23.68
(0%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 2:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ACHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACHC price and gamma walls.
