ASTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASTH - Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock
$49.17
-0.64 (-1.28%)
▼
5d:
+13.03%
30d:
+33.22%
90d:
+100.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ASTH is 11.6% above its trading range ($44.07). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ASTH is 11.6% above its trading range ($44.07). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.47
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASTH is currently trading at $49.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.72 to $44.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.42, while resistance sits at $51.60.
Market Sentiment: ASTH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.42, while resistance sits at $51.60.
Market Sentiment: ASTH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.72 -
$44.07
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
ASTH is technically overbought (RSI 83). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.11)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 11.3% growth expectation is conservative given 110% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.72 -
$44.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.42
Resistance Level
$51.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.38
Wall Street Target
$47.11
(-4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
110.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.3% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 10.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.73
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$60.91
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$67.79
(+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.1%)
$119.68
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$79.00
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$57.15
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.13
Bull Case
$59.37
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$49.17
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$37.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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