ASTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASTH - Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock
$38.26
-0.90 (-2.30%)
▼
5d:
-2.65%
30d:
+25.03%
90d:
+103.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.25
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASTH is currently trading at $38.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.47 to $37.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.19, while resistance sits at $39.93.
Market Sentiment: ASTH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.56 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.19, while resistance sits at $39.93.
Market Sentiment: ASTH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.56 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.47 -
$37.49
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.47 -
$37.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.52
(6.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.19
Resistance Level
$39.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.22
Wall Street Target
$43.56
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
110.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.68
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$41.14
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$42.67
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.8%)
$119.86
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 16.8%)
$60.93
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 16.8%)
$51.79
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.66
Bull Case
$46.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$38.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$29.27
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASTH price and gamma walls.
