Is ADBE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADBE is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ADBE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ADBE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADBE to be between $298.37 and $346.04. The current price is $293.25.

What is the analyst price target for ADBE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADBE is $420.29. This implies a potential upside of 44.1% from current levels.

ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADBE - Adobe Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$293.25

1.60 (0.55%) ▲

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Mar 11, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADBE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$527.17

Based on 8.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$327.33

10.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $293.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $298.37 to $346.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $284.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ADBE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $420.29 (+44.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $298.37 - $346.04

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 44.1% below Wall St target ($420.29)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $298.37 - $346.04

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $284.60

Resistance Level $306.30

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.06

Wall Street Target $420.29 (+44.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 17.2%

Profit Margin 30.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.1 vs 13.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $273.28 (-6%)

2-Year Target $256.06 (-12%)

3-Year Target $239.93 (-18%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→14) $292.99 (+1%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.4%) $836.27 (+187%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 12.4%) $414.58 (+42%)

Bear: (PE: 9.4, Growth: 12.4%) $352.39 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 17.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.69

Bull Case $517.13 (+77%)

Analyst growth 58.1%, PE expands to 19.6

Base Case $470.12 (+61%)

Market implied 58.1%, PE stable at 17.8

Bear Case $202.25 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 13.5

Stabilization Target: $356.15 (+22.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +22.1%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Marjorie Taylor Greene BUY 2025-10-15

Ro Khanna SELL 2025-09-29

Markwayne Mullin SELL 2025-09-24

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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.

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