SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$119.46
-2.17 (-1.78%)
▼
5d:
+7.02%
30d:
+2.09%
90d:
+0.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
Get Alerted When SHOP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $119.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.01 to $117.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.2) compared to its historical average (60.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $106.00, while resistance sits at $123.70.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.22 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $106.00, while resistance sits at $123.70.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.22 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$108.01 -
$117.43
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($148.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.01 -
$117.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.00
Resistance Level
$123.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.22
Wall Street Target
$148.22
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
51.2 vs 60.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.77
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$106.46
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$100.49
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→61)
$119.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.2, Growth: 26.9%)
$244.35
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.9%)
$103.91
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 26.9%)
$88.32
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (51x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 64.94 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.84
Bull Case
$144.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 68.2
Base Case
$119.46
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 64.9
Bear Case
$91.39
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 58.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.2 to 60.9
Stabilization Target:
$142.05
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
NOW
ServiceNow Inc |
STRONG BUY
47 analysts |
$141 | 60 BUY |
|
INTU
Intuit Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$488 | 55 HOLD |
|
TEAM
Atlassian Corp Plc |
STRONG BUY
33 analysts |
$140 | 56 HOLD |
|
CRM
Salesforce.com Inc |
STRONG BUY
55 analysts |
$252 | 55 HOLD |
|
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems I… |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$389 | 55 HOLD |
Advanced SHOP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.
