ADI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADI - Analog Devices, Inc.
$310.88
-7.82 (-2.45%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ADI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$446.27
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$277.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADI is currently trading at $310.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $279.39 to $307.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $319.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $319.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$279.39 -
$307.72
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($313.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$279.39 -
$307.72
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$293.82
Resistance Level
$319.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.83
Wall Street Target
$313.31
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.1%
Profit Margin
20.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
27.8 vs 27.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$321.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$324.46
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$327.38
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$318.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$480.45
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.7%)
$384.98
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 14.7%)
$327.23
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.03 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.61
Bull Case
$384.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.5
Base Case
$318.70
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$243.81
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward H Frank
SELL
1000 shares
2025-10-06
Vincent Roche
SELL
10000 shares
2025-10-01
Ray Stata
SELL
3125 shares
2025-09-17
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Advanced ADI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADI price and gamma walls.
