NXPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$273.36
-5.82 (-2.08%)
▼
5d:
-8.47%
30d:
-15.53%
90d:
+39.77%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NXPI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NXPI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$464.25
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$288.26
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $273.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $286.79 to $321.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $267.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $308.07 (+12.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $267.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $308.07 (+12.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$286.79 -
$321.74
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NXPI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($308.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$286.79 -
$321.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$267.55
Resistance Level
$327.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.44
Wall Street Target
$308.07
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.7%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$275.00
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$276.65
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$278.31
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$272.26
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.6%)
$660.31
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 19.6%)
$467.96
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 19.6%)
$397.77
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.47
Bull Case
$519.45
(+90%)
Analyst growth 69.1%, PE expands to 29.3
Base Case
$472.23
(+73%)
Market implied 69.1%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$189.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Andrew Micallef
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-16
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
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