NVDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVDA - Nvidia Corp
$185.41
13.60 (7.92%)
▲
5d:
-2.99%
30d:
-1.96%
90d:
-5.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Feb 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
15d
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185 traders called NVDA this week
80% bullish • 57 bearish
80% bullish • 57 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVDA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.7% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVDA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.7% annual earnings decline despite 67% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$373.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$231.67
20.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVDA is currently trading at $185.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $180.91 to $190.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (31.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 66.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $171.03, while resistance sits at $194.49. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $253.62 (+36.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $171.03, while resistance sits at $194.49. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $253.62 (+36.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$180.91 -
$190.09
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.8% below Wall St target ($253.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$180.91 -
$190.09
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.03
Resistance Level
$194.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Feb 6, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.19
Wall Street Target
$253.62
(+36.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
62.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.7%
Profit Margin
53.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.2 vs 31.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.28
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$154.55
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$141.11
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→32)
$185.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 63.3%)
$625.76
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 63.3%)
$576.80
(+211%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 63.3%)
$490.28
(+164%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$358.66
(+93%)
Analyst growth 89.7%, PE expands to 46.8
Base Case
$326.06
(+76%)
Market implied 89.7%, PE stable at 42.5
Bear Case
$116.88
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.2 to 31.8
Stabilization Target:
$243.71
(+31.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: February 09, 2026 12:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ajay K Puri
SELL
200000 shares
2026-01-21
Nancy Pelosi
BUY
2026-01-16
Colette Kress
SELL
27640 shares
2026-01-13
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