AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.65
-0.39 (-2.59%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 27, 2026
27d
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5 traders called AES this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.43
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.44
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.65, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.99 to $14.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.63, while resistance sits at $15.35.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.63, while resistance sits at $15.35.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$13.99 -
$14.76
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.21)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.99 -
$14.76
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.63
Resistance Level
$15.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.50
Wall Street Target
$15.21
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.39
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.74
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$16.10
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.0%)
$63.10
(+320%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 7.0%)
$18.41
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 7.0%)
$15.64
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$24.96
(+66%)
Analyst growth 52.1%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$22.70
(+51%)
Market implied 52.1%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$10.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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