AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$40.41
-0.75 (-1.82%)
▼
5d:
-1.0%
30d:
-3.51%
90d:
-6.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When AVA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.99
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $40.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.56 to $41.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.56 -
$41.55
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.56 -
$41.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.03
Resistance Level
$41.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.48
Wall Street Target
$41.83
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.41
(0%)
2-Year Target
$40.41
(0%)
3-Year Target
$40.41
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$40.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.1%)
$75.67
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 7.1%)
$49.66
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 7.1%)
$42.21
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$50.33
(+25%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$45.75
(+13%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$27.99
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexis G Alexander
SELL
555 shares
2026-03-13
Bryan Alden Cox
SELL
1768 shares
2026-02-26
Wayne O Manuel
SELL
1785 shares
2025-12-16
Top Rated Utilities - Diversified Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Utilities - Diversified by analyst ratings.
