AOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$65.94
2.26 (3.55%)
ā²
5d:
+0.75%
30d:
-15.39%
90d:
-3.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
AOS is up 4.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $65 2026-05-15 with 1,834 OI. Put ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: AOS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
ā BUY SIGNAL: AOS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.30
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.04
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $65.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.94 to $76.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.91 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.91 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$65.94 -
$76.84
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($79.91)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$65.94 -
$76.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.28
Resistance Level
$67.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.66
Wall Street Target
$79.91
(+25.5%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.88
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$58.20
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$55.64
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15ā17)
$63.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$123.31
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$80.88
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$68.75
(+8%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.85
Bull Case
$79.55
(+22%)
Analyst growth 12.8%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$72.32
(+11%)
Market implied 12.8%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$43.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$72.98
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
1104 shares
2026-03-04
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
356 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced AOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AOS price and gamma walls.
