AOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$73.49
0.32 (0.44%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AOS is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AOS is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.59
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $73.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.02 to $72.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$68.02 -
$72.06
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($78.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$68.02 -
$72.06
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.36
Resistance Level
$74.42
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.14
Wall Street Target
$78.27
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Profit Margin
13.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.15
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$77.17
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$79.26
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$108.02
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 6.3%)
$87.85
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 6.3%)
$74.68
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.71
Bull Case
$83.12
(+13%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$75.56
(+3%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$47.25
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-09-25
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Advanced AOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AOS price and gamma walls.
