APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$473.11
-96.13 (-16.89%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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6 traders called APP this week
77% bullish • 3 bearish
77% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$712.93
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$442.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $473.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $545.36 to $688.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.9) is in line with its historical norms (42.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 95.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $463.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 16.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $741.08 (+30.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $463.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 16.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $741.08 (+30.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$545.36 -
$688.72
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-16.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($741.08)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.8%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$545.36 -
$688.72
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$463.08
Resistance Level
$615.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.87
Wall Street Target
$741.08
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
68.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.9%
Profit Margin
44.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
38.9 vs 42.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$553.87
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$538.92
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$524.37
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→42)
$570.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.9, Growth: 56.6%)
$1921.18
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 56.6%)
$1102.15
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 56.6%)
$936.83
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 37.59 | Forward EPS (Implied): $15.14
Bull Case
$687.36
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.5
Base Case
$569.24
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.6
Bear Case
$435.47
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 38.9 to 42.3
Stabilization Target:
$619.45
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-19
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APP price and gamma walls.
