ARES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock
$106.93
0.65 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-0.18%
30d:
-4.54%
90d:
-36.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARES trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARES trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$269.32
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$167.23
36.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $106.93, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.10 to $120.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $98.80, while resistance sits at $111.71.
Market Sentiment: ARES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.65 (+54.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $98.80, while resistance sits at $111.71.
Market Sentiment: ARES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.65 (+54.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$103.10 -
$120.82
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.0% below Wall St target ($163.65)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$103.10 -
$120.82
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.80
Resistance Level
$111.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.95
Wall Street Target
$163.65
(+54.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.4%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 20.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.65
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$86.09
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$77.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→21)
$113.83
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.3%)
$289.57
(+173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 19.3%)
$180.38
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$153.32
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.16 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.63
Bull Case
$129.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$107.12
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$81.95
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$156.15
(+46.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Judy D Olian
BUY
480 shares
2026-02-20
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
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