AXTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
$26.69
-0.16 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
-20.11%
90d:
-17.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXTA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXTA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.67
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.74
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXTA is currently trading at $26.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.77 to $32.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $24.94, while resistance sits at $28.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.36 (+43.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $24.94, while resistance sits at $28.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.36 (+43.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$26.77 -
$32.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.7% below Wall St target ($38.36)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.77 -
$32.69
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.94
Resistance Level
$28.29
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.33
Wall Street Target
$38.36
(+43.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.9%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.93
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$23.28
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$21.75
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$26.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.0%)
$82.93
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 9.0%)
$34.60
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 9.0%)
$29.41
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.74
Bull Case
$46.03
(+74%)
Analyst growth 64.5%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$41.84
(+58%)
Market implied 64.5%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$17.30
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$32.63
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
7
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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