AXTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
$33.58
-0.52 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
+2.35%
90d:
+13.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXTA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXTA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.23
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXTA is currently trading at $33.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.52 to $33.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$32.52 -
$33.69
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.71)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.52 -
$33.69
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.76
Resistance Level
$34.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.59
Wall Street Target
$36.71
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$35.07
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$35.85
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.1%)
$73.15
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 7.1%)
$41.29
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 7.1%)
$35.10
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$47.83
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.7%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$43.48
(+30%)
Market implied 27.7%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$23.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 9:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-22
Amy Tufano
SELL
3194 shares
2025-08-19
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