SHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHW - The Sherwin-Williams Company
$352.48
6.43 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
+3.95%
30d:
+20.3%
90d:
+8.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
24d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHW is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SHW is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$495.80
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$307.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHW is currently trading at $352.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $300.92 to $335.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.6) is in line with its historical norms (25.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $315.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $315.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$300.92 -
$335.27
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
SHW is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($374.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$300.92 -
$335.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$289.86
Resistance Level
$315.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.61
Wall Street Target
$374.20
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
26.6 vs 25.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$358.82
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$365.28
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$371.86
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$352.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.6, Growth: 12.9%)
$507.21
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.9%)
$415.19
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.9%)
$352.91
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.42
Bull Case
$483.95
(+37%)
Analyst growth 27.1%, PE expands to 36.5
Base Case
$439.95
(+25%)
Market implied 27.1%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$235.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Bryan J Young
SELL
2513 shares
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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