BK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BK - Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
$119.92
-1.57 (-1.29%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.09
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BK is currently trading at $119.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.47 to $121.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$117.47 -
$121.75
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($132.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$117.47 -
$121.75
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.35
Resistance Level
$124.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.00
Wall Street Target
$132.60
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.8%
Profit Margin
27.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.30
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$117.16
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$115.05
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$121.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$295.48
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 12.3%)
$172.24
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 12.3%)
$146.41
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.41
Bull Case
$164.92
(+36%)
Analyst growth 26.1%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$149.92
(+23%)
Market implied 26.1%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$80.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$128.04
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-08-14
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Advanced BK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BK price and gamma walls.
