BOOT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BOOT - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$178.48
3.66 (2.09%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BOOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BOOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$317.63
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.22
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BOOT is currently trading at $178.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $182.79 to $195.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (26.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $171.46, while resistance sits at $202.26.
Market Sentiment: BOOT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.86 (+32.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $171.46, while resistance sits at $202.26.
Market Sentiment: BOOT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.86 (+32.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$182.79 -
$195.28
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.6% below Wall St target ($231.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$182.79 -
$195.28
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.46
Resistance Level
$202.26
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.02
Wall Street Target
$231.86
(+32.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.2%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 26.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.71
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$149.58
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$138.36
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→27)
$174.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.8%)
$273.45
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$257.77
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$219.10
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.77
Bull Case
$241.46
(+38%)
Analyst growth 22.8%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$219.51
(+26%)
Market implied 22.8%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$121.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.0 to 26.5
Stabilization Target:
$220.39
(+26.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BOOT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BOOT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BOOT price and gamma walls.
