BOOT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BOOT - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$133.88
-9.63 (-6.71%)
▼
5d:
-12.4%
30d:
-27.35%
90d:
-24.13%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
BOOT is down 12.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $135 2026-05-15 with 300 OI. Call ratio: 94% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BOOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BOOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$319.63
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$198.47
32.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BOOT is currently trading at $133.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.52 to $186.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (23.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $133.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: BOOT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $237.14 (+65.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $133.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: BOOT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $237.14 (+65.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$150.52 -
$186.06
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BOOT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 65.2% below Wall St target ($237.14)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.4%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$150.52 -
$186.06
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$133.18
Resistance Level
$165.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.92
Wall Street Target
$237.14
(+65.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 23.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.16
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$116.24
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$104.62
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→24)
$146.51
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$292.43
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$221.42
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$188.21
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.14
Bull Case
$206.28
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.8%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$187.53
(+16%)
Market implied 18.8%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$107.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 23.7
Stabilization Target:
$200.98
(+40.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 12:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BOOT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gene Eddie Burt
SELL
1200 shares
2025-12-01
Peter Starrett
SELL
6498 shares
2025-11-03
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Advanced BOOT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BOOT price and gamma walls.
