BTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTI - British American Tobacco p.l.c. American Depositary Shares, American Depositary Shares, each representing one Ordinary Share
$60.68
0.46 (0.76%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BTI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BTI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.25
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTI is currently trading at $60.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.30 to $59.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BTI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BTI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$55.30 -
$59.12
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BTI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($59.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$55.30 -
$59.12
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.31
Resistance Level
$60.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.36
Wall Street Target
$59.50
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.24
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$62.28
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$63.34
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.7%)
$128.31
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 5.7%)
$71.10
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 5.7%)
$60.43
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$132.35
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$120.32
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$40.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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