Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.20
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $189.61, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $156.72 to $177.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $192.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$156.72 -
$177.46
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
PM is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI has not only diversified away from smokable products but also gained a toehold in the US to sell its Iqos heated tobacco product.
