PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$182.27
4.58 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+4.96%
90d:
+15.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
18d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.69
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $182.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.92 to $182.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $183.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $183.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$175.92 -
$182.26
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($193.86)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 9.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.92 -
$182.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.00
Resistance Level
$183.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.98
Wall Street Target
$193.86
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.3%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.46
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$186.67
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$188.91
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$182.45
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$253.34
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$232.44
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$197.57
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.11
Bull Case
$250.75
(+38%)
Analyst growth 28.3%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$227.96
(+25%)
Market implied 28.3%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$120.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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