MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$72.71
1.17 (1.64%)
▲
5d:
-0.68%
30d:
+5.01%
90d:
+11.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.34
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $72.71, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.78 to $72.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$69.78 -
$72.78
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.36)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.78 -
$72.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.23
Resistance Level
$73.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.37
Wall Street Target
$70.36
(-3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.3%
Profit Margin
39.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.67
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$76.69
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$78.76
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.57
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.4%)
$141.68
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 3.4%)
$80.49
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 3.4%)
$68.41
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$96.55
(+33%)
Analyst growth 22.7%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$87.77
(+21%)
Market implied 22.7%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$48.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles N Whitaker
SELL
27908 shares
2026-03-05
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