CCL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CCL - Carnival Corporation
$30.02
-1.13 (-3.63%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 20, 2026
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3 traders called CCL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CCL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CCL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.01
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CCL is currently trading at $30.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.01 to $31.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CCL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.76, while resistance sits at $31.43. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.00 (+22.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CCL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.76, while resistance sits at $31.43. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.00 (+22.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$29.01 -
$31.75
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($38.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.01 -
$31.75
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.76
Resistance Level
$31.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.01
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(+22.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.03
(0%)
2-Year Target
$30.90
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$30.78
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$31.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$86.17
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$42.56
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$36.18
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.02
Bull Case
$44.18
(+42%)
Analyst growth 40.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$40.17
(+29%)
Market implied 40.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$19.51
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$31.39
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CCL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
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SELL
12500 shares
2025-08-05
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