TCOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
$50.28
-2.00 (-3.83%)
▼
5d:
-5.79%
30d:
-7.1%
90d:
-7.68%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
TCOM is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $65 2026-06-18 with 6,985 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.73
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.85
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $50.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.44 to $54.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.6) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 98.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.03 (+53.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.03 (+53.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.44 -
$54.22
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.2% below Wall St target ($77.03)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.44 -
$54.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.27
Resistance Level
$54.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.58
Wall Street Target
$77.03
(+53.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
98.1%
Profit Margin
53.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.12
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$46.05
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$44.07
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$50.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$1023.37
(+1935%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 13.4%)
$73.36
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 13.4%)
$62.35
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.02
Bull Case
$111.50
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$101.36
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$34.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$57.29
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCOM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCOM price and gamma walls.