CENX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CENX - Century Aluminum Co
$50.51
3.19 (6.74%)
▲
5d:
+5.63%
30d:
+23.38%
90d:
+70.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CENX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CENX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.09
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $50.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.03 to $48.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$42.03 -
$48.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($50.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.2% growth with 17.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.03 -
$48.81
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.41
Resistance Level
$52.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.47
Wall Street Target
$50.00
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.63
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$54.84
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$57.15
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 142.5%)
$448.94
(+789%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 142.5%)
$170.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 142.5%)
$144.90
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (56x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 56.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$104.10
(+106%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 62.0
Base Case
$94.64
(+87%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 56.3
Bear Case
$32.18
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 47.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 7:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CENX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Agust F Hafberg
SELL
9493 shares
2025-09-26
Matt Aboud
SELL
12027 shares
2025-08-12
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