Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CENX is 8.9% above fair value ($57.44). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.30
Based on -0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $62.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.79 to $57.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $64.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CENX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$49.79 -
$57.44
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CENX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
Century Aluminum Co produces primary aluminum standard grade and value-added products. The firm operates smelter facilities in the United States and Iceland. The majority of revenue is generated from Glencore, which agreed to purchase nearly all of Century Aluminum's North American production. Century purchases nearly all of its alumina from Glencore. The company produces high purity aluminum, standard-grade aluminum sow and tee bars, and value-added billet and foundry products. Century also owns a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands.
