AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$48.68
1.20 (2.53%)
▲
5d:
-8.29%
30d:
-41.9%
90d:
-32.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
12d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.19
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $48.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.75 to $76.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $46.01, while resistance sits at $61.78.
Market Sentiment: AA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.30 (+60.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $46.01, while resistance sits at $61.78.
Market Sentiment: AA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.30 (+60.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$54.75 -
$76.01
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.8% below Wall St target ($78.30)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.75 -
$76.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.01
Resistance Level
$61.78
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.74
Wall Street Target
$78.30
(+60.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.7%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.81
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$39.43
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$35.49
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$59.49
(+22%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -7.6%)
$124.15
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: -7.6%)
$38.43
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: -7.6%)
$32.66
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$96.70
(+99%)
Analyst growth 85.2%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$87.91
(+81%)
Market implied 85.2%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$32.29
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$81.60
(+67.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+67.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
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