CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$94.75
2.95 (3.21%)
▲
5d:
-1.98%
30d:
-6.57%
90d:
+3.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.88
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $94.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.06 to $100.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.26, while resistance sits at $98.25. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.26, while resistance sits at $98.25. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$95.06 -
$100.62
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($101.02)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$95.06 -
$100.62
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.26
Resistance Level
$98.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.54
Wall Street Target
$101.02
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.6%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.67
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$90.63
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$88.63
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$94.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$317.39
(+235%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.6%)
$121.34
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$103.14
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.99
Bull Case
$164.52
(+70%)
Analyst growth 58.6%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$149.56
(+55%)
Market implied 58.6%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$64.11
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$100.91
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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