CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$92.39
-2.70 (-2.84%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.88
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $92.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.13 to $92.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$91.13 -
$92.72
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($89.15)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$91.13 -
$92.72
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.22
Resistance Level
$95.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.09
Wall Street Target
$89.15
(-6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
31.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$93.76
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$93.11
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$95.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$311.69
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$127.11
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$108.04
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.30
Bull Case
$170.02
(+84%)
Analyst growth 66.0%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$154.57
(+67%)
Market implied 66.0%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$63.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$97.24
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CM price and gamma walls.
