CME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$289.06
-0.77 (-0.27%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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2 traders called CME this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$344.06
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$213.63
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $289.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $268.87 to $282.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.7) is in line with its historical norms (23.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $291.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CME has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $291.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CME has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$268.87 -
$282.43
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($290.40)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with -3.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$268.87 -
$282.43
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$270.87
Resistance Level
$291.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.71
Wall Street Target
$290.40
(+0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Profit Margin
59.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 23.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$294.47
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$299.18
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$303.97
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$290.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 4.9%)
$334.32
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.9%)
$301.65
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 4.9%)
$256.41
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.33
Bull Case
$357.21
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$324.74
(+12%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 27.7
Bear Case
$194.51
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
William R Shepard
BUY
12 shares
2025-09-25
William R Shepard
BUY
262 shares
2025-09-25
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