CME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CME - CME Group Inc.
$297.51
-0.07 (-0.02%)
▼
5d:
-1.71%
30d:
-8.87%
90d:
+6.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
Smart Money Distribution
CME is up 4.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $280 2026-04-17 with 8,320 OI. Put ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$381.05
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$236.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CME is currently trading at $297.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $302.04 to $318.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.4) is in line with its historical norms (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $292.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $292.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$302.04 -
$318.62
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($306.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$302.04 -
$318.62
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$292.95
Resistance Level
$316.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.41
Wall Street Target
$306.86
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Profit Margin
62.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 24.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$295.20
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$292.84
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$290.50
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$297.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$345.44
(+16%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$329.77
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.1%)
$280.31
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.16
Bull Case
$385.02
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.9%, PE expands to 30.3
Base Case
$350.02
(+14%)
Market implied 13.9%, PE stable at 27.5
Bear Case
$208.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.4 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$305.06
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bryan T Durkin
SELL
4200 shares
2026-02-23
Martin J Gepsman
SELL
300 shares
2026-02-20
Dennis Suskind
SELL
748 shares
2026-02-06
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CME price and gamma walls.
