MCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCO - Moody's Corporation
$490.51
22.13 (4.72%)
▲
5d:
+11.77%
30d:
+8.14%
90d:
+11.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MCO is 7.6% above its trading range ($456.04). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MCO is 7.6% above its trading range ($456.04). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$672.76
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$417.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCO is currently trading at $490.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $442.75 to $456.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.4) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $465.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MCO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $465.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MCO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$442.75 -
$456.04
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($536.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Extended 7.6% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$442.75 -
$456.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$441.70
Resistance Level
$465.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.37
Wall Street Target
$536.50
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
26.4 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$491.00
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$491.49
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$491.98
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$490.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.4, Growth: 11.4%)
$677.61
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$559.59
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 11.4%)
$475.65
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.96
Bull Case
$686.42
(+40%)
Analyst growth 33.2%, PE expands to 36.9
Base Case
$624.02
(+27%)
Market implied 33.2%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$318.50
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert Fauber
SELL
1467 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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