CMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMI - Cummins Inc.
$578.82
-5.12 (-0.88%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$885.97
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$550.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMI is currently trading at $578.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $525.57 to $577.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $563.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $563.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$525.57 -
$577.29
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($560.57)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with -1.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$525.57 -
$577.29
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$24.59
(4.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$563.50
Resistance Level
$592.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.56
Wall Street Target
$560.57
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.1%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$602.63
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$621.91
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$641.81
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$583.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 17.8%)
$955.73
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.8%)
$944.90
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.8%)
$803.17
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.30
Bull Case
$850.25
(+46%)
Analyst growth 34.1%, PE expands to 32.8
Base Case
$772.95
(+32%)
Market implied 34.1%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$391.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark Andrew Smith
SELL
8000 shares
2025-10-06
Mark Andrew Smith
SELL
1580 shares
2025-09-17
Mark Andrew Smith
SELL
2671 shares
2025-09-16
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Advanced CMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMI price and gamma walls.
