DG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DG - Dollar General Corp.
$143.43
1.65 (1.16%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 12, 2026
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1 traders called DG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.86
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.82
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DG is currently trading at $143.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.65 to $148.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$137.65 -
$148.79
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($139.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$137.65 -
$148.79
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.00
Resistance Level
$152.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.89
Wall Street Target
$139.25
(-1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.8%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.65
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$137.56
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$135.50
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$141.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.6%)
$209.02
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.6%)
$186.41
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.6%)
$158.45
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.79
Bull Case
$199.99
(+41%)
Analyst growth 23.1%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$181.81
(+28%)
Market implied 23.1%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$100.41
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$148.28
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DG price and gamma walls.
