COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$1028.24
-22.21 (-2.11%)
▼
5d:
-1.97%
30d:
+1.37%
90d:
+4.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
5d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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7 traders called COST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$789.05
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$489.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $1028.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $988.07 to $1044.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 45.5) is in line with its historical norms (44.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $985.15, while resistance sits at $1096.50.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $985.15, while resistance sits at $1096.50.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$988.07 -
$1044.68
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1076.97)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$988.07 -
$1044.68
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$985.15
Resistance Level
$1096.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.54
Wall Street Target
$1076.97
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
45.5 vs 44.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1038.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1048.91
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$1059.40
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$1025.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$1364.92
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$659.04
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$560.18
(-46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (55x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 54.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.22
Bull Case
$1357.34
(+32%)
Analyst growth 17.5%, PE expands to 60.1
Base Case
$1233.95
(+20%)
Market implied 17.5%, PE stable at 54.7
Bear Case
$714.31
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 46.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-30
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