COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$947.50
-2.75 (-0.29%)
▼
5d:
+0.09%
30d:
-2.56%
90d:
-6.98%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 24, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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1 traders called COST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$797.77
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$495.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $947.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $944.48 to $975.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.9) is in line with its historical norms (43.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $961.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1082.94 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $961.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1082.94 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$944.48 -
$975.04
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1082.94)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$944.48 -
$975.04
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$961.00
Resistance Level
$997.41
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.92
Wall Street Target
$1082.94
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.9 vs 43.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$936.00
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$921.96
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$908.13
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→44)
$951.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.9, Growth: 10.2%)
$1270.55
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$660.17
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.2%)
$561.15
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.89
Bull Case
$1188.92
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 52.4
Base Case
$1080.83
(+14%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 47.7
Bear Case
$644.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.9 to 43.9
Stabilization Target:
$995.20
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-30
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