TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$130.21
-0.08 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
-6.71%
30d:
+5.71%
90d:
+8.1%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.21
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $130.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.84 to $135.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $131.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$124.84 -
$135.10
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TGT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($133.70)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.6% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.84 -
$135.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.77
Resistance Level
$131.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.04
Wall Street Target
$133.70
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 14.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.20
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$142.46
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$149.02
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$130.31
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$190.20
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$148.79
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 4.5%)
$126.47
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.58
Bull Case
$144.49
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.8%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$131.36
(+1%)
Market implied 0.8%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$88.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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