ELF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$60.01
0.66 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
-11.18%
30d:
-26.49%
90d:
-24.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ELF is down 13.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-05-15 with 386 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ELF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ELF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.50
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.00
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ELF is currently trading at $60.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.16 to $87.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 116.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $58.05, while resistance sits at $75.44.
Market Sentiment: ELF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.71 (+88.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $58.05, while resistance sits at $75.44.
Market Sentiment: ELF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.71 (+88.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$67.16 -
$87.84
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ELF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 88.2% below Wall St target ($111.71)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.2%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$67.16 -
$87.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.05
Resistance Level
$75.44
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.24
Wall Street Target
$111.71
(+88.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
116.7%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 22.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$48.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$43.27
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$60.48
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$133.47
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 17.8%)
$96.98
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$82.43
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.77
Bull Case
$159.50
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.1
Base Case
$145.00
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.0
Bear Case
$49.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$82.96
(+39.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ELF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ELF price and gamma walls.
