ELF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$84.99
-0.04 (-0.05%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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1 traders called ELF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ELF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ELF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.38
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.37
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ELF is currently trading at $84.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.02 to $89.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $112.43 (+32.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $112.43 (+32.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$79.02 -
$89.63
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ELF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.2% below Wall St target ($112.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 14.2% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.7% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.02 -
$89.63
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.92
Resistance Level
$96.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.34
Wall Street Target
$112.43
(+32.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.8%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 23.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.22
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$87.43
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$88.65
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.23
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: 22.3%)
$155.38
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.3%)
$142.36
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 22.3%)
$121.01
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 24.57 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.46
Bull Case
$102.63
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$84.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$65.02
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ELF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tarang Amin
SELL
116315 shares
2025-10-01
Kory Marchisotto
SELL
10812 shares
2025-09-17
Mandy J Fields
SELL
5298 shares
2025-09-17
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