EVH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

EVH - Evolent Health, Inc Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-MANAGEMENT SERVICES
$3.96
-0.14 (-3.41%) ▼
5d: -5.26%
30d: +32.44%
90d: +41.94%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Protect Your EVH Gains
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

EVH is down 5.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-06-18 with 1,123 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EVH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.66
15.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: EVH is currently trading at $3.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.69 to $3.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, EVH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.56, while resistance sits at $4.54. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.

Market Sentiment: EVH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.75 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $2.69 - $3.98
Company Quality Score 60/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
  • BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($5.75)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $2.69 - $3.98
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $3.56
Resistance Level $4.54
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.87
Wall Street Target $5.75 (+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.6%
Profit Margin -26.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.9% premium
PE vs Historical 9.9 vs 9.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $4.00 (+1%)
2-Year Target $4.03 (+2%)
3-Year Target $4.07 (+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $3.96 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 110.4%) $29.89 (+655%)
Base: (SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 110.4%) $13.37 (+238%)
Bear: (PE: 8.4, Growth: 110.4%) $11.36 (+187%)
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Last updated: May 15, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Brendan B Springstubb BUY 10000 shares 2025-11-18
Brendan B Springstubb BUY 10000 shares 2025-11-18

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Advanced EVH Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EVH price and gamma walls.

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