EXPE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPE - Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock
$225.81
-7.03 (-3.02%)
▼
5d:
-3.98%
30d:
+3.62%
90d:
-21.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
EXPE is up 5.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $230 2026-05-15 with 1,123 OI. Put ratio: 72% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$502.41
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$311.96
27.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPE is currently trading at $225.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $207.49 to $240.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $280.76 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $280.76 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$207.49 -
$240.72
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($280.76)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$207.49 -
$240.72
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$221.30
Resistance Level
$247.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.92
Wall Street Target
$280.76
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.3%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$205.71
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$187.40
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$170.73
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$225.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.2%)
$843.42
(+274%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 18.2%)
$373.33
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 18.2%)
$317.33
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.81
Bull Case
$517.40
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$470.36
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$159.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$298.34
(+32.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert J Dzielak
SELL
8225 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXPE price and gamma walls.
