EXPE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPE - Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock
$264.84
-7.93 (-2.91%)
ā¼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$464.67
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$288.53
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPE is currently trading at $264.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $273.04 to $294.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $262.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $262.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$273.04 -
$294.87
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($288.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$273.04 -
$294.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$262.36
Resistance Level
$295.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.19
Wall Street Target
$288.38
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.4%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$271.41
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$270.05
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$268.70
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15ā15)
$272.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.1%)
$659.10
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 18.1%)
$448.97
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 18.1%)
$381.62
(+40%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.38
Bull Case
$507.59
(+86%)
Analyst growth 73.0%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$461.44
(+69%)
Market implied 73.0%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$181.38
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$276.53
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-26
Lance A Soliday
SELL
852 shares
2025-08-20
Craig A Jacobson
SELL
3000 shares
2025-08-19
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