F Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
F - Ford Motor Company
$11.38
-0.30 (-2.57%)
▼
5d:
-1.9%
30d:
-11.16%
90d:
-13.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
F is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $14 2026-05-15 with 12,665 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: F appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.1% annual earnings decline despite 173% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: F appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.1% annual earnings decline despite 173% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.54
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.48
31.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: F is currently trading at $11.38, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.38 to $13.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 172.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, F is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.14 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, F is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.14 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$11.38 -
$13.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($14.14)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.38 -
$13.31
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.11
Resistance Level
$12.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.36
Wall Street Target
$14.14
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
172.7%
Profit Margin
-4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 8.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.73
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$9.86
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$9.07
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$11.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 20.3%)
$71.43
(+512%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 20.3%)
$20.33
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 20.3%)
$17.28
(+48%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$15.06
(+28.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is F showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William Clay Ford Jr
BUY
140000 shares
2026-02-19
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