FR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FR - First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.
$57.26
0.08 (0.14%)
▲
5d:
-1.38%
30d:
-9.31%
90d:
-1.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
FR is down 5.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-06-18 with 199 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.00
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FR is currently trading at $57.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.47 to $62.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.0) is in line with its historical norms (32.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.27 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.27 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$58.47 -
$62.47
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($65.27)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.47 -
$62.47
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.57
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.67
Resistance Level
$62.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.03
Wall Street Target
$65.27
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
34.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.0 vs 32.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.34
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$55.44
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$54.56
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→33)
$57.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.0, Growth: 13.5%)
$83.66
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$60.26
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.5%)
$51.22
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 30.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$61.87
(+7%)
Analyst growth -1.3%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$56.24
(-3%)
Market implied -1.3%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$38.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.0 to 32.6
Stabilization Target:
$60.15
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Johannson L Yap
SELL
680 shares
2025-12-17
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Advanced FR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FR price and gamma walls.
