HLF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLF - Herbalife Ltd.
$17.24
0.26 (1.53%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
18d
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1 traders called HLF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLF trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HLF trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.39
0.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLF is currently trading at $17.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.54 to $16.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (5.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$13.54 -
$16.82
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.4%
Protect Your Profits
HLF is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 17.6% above Wall St target ($14.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.0% growth with 2.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.54 -
$16.82
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.78
(10.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.22
Resistance Level
$17.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.14
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(-17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.1%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 5.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.00
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$19.08
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$20.22
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.13
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.9%)
$128.89
(+659%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 27.9%)
$35.49
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 27.9%)
$30.06
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.13
Bull Case
$16.46
(-3%)
Analyst growth -11.6%, PE expands to 6.0
Base Case
$14.97
(-12%)
Market implied -11.6%, PE stable at 5.4
Bear Case
$11.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HLF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLF price and gamma walls.
